Solar market: data, prices and trends
This page summarises our August 2026 market report: real equipment prices, the structure of the global supply chain, available technologies and Iran's green power market. The purpose is to let an investor benchmark our 3 MW project against global references rather than take our word for it.
Photovoltaic module prices
After two years of historic decline, prices have recovered slightly since the start of 2026. The main driver is China's removal of the export VAT rebate on 1 April 2026.
| Market and delivery | Technology | Price | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| China, FOB, Tier-1 | TOPCon | USD 0.085–0.095/W | BloombergNEF, Q1 2026 |
| China, FOB, spot | TOPCon | USD 0.109/W | OPIS, July 2026 |
| China, Q4 2026 forward | TOPCon | USD 0.113–0.114/W | OPIS |
| Europe, imported DDP | TOPCon ≥600 W | About EUR 0.108/W | OPIS, June 2026 |
| Europe, market index | Mainstream | About EUR 0.135/Wp | pvXchange, July 2026 |
| United States, delivered | Imported TOPCon | USD 0.27–0.32/W | After AD/CVD tariffs |
| India, domestic ALMM | TOPCon | USD 0.15–0.20/W | With import duty |
| 2024–25 historic floor | All | USD 0.07–0.09/W | Below cash cost — Wood Mackenzie |
A US buyer pays roughly three times what an Indian buyer pays for the same physical module. There is no single global price: origin, destination, technology and timing all move it.
Equipment cost for a 3 MW plant
Drawn from the cost model in our report, covering equipment only — excluding land, civil works, installation labour, grid connection and engineering.
| Item | USD per watt | Low (USD) | High (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PV modules | 0.09–0.12 | 270,000 | 360,000 |
| Inverters | 0.02–0.04 | 60,000 | 120,000 |
| Galvanised fixed structure | 0.05–0.08 | 150,000 | 240,000 |
| Cabling, connectors, combiners | 0.02–0.04 | 60,000 | 120,000 |
| Transformers and MV/LV switchgear | 0.03–0.055 | 90,000 | 165,000 |
| Monitoring, met station, earthing | 0.008–0.018 | 24,000 | 54,000 |
| Equipment subtotal | 0.218–0.353 | 654,000 | 1,059,000 |
| Freight, insurance and customs (9%) | — | 58,860 | 95,310 |
| Delivered to site | — | 712,860 | 1,154,310 |
Against our full EPC cost of USD 1,290,000, equipment represents 55–89%. The balance is civil works, installation, engineering and grid connection.
Inverters
The inverter market is contracting in volume for the first time in its history, even as its dollar value grows.
| Type / metric | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Central (utility, China) | USD 0.035–0.045/W | Down from 0.05–0.06 in 2022 |
| High-power utility string | USD 0.040–0.050/W | More MPPTs, modular repair |
| Per megawatt (Asia-Pacific) | USD 22,000–28,000 | Falling 12–15% a year |
| Containerised power station | USD 0.06–0.09/W | Includes MV transformer |
| Huawei and Sungrow share | 40–55% of the market | Ranked first and second globally |
| Utility installation mix | 55–60% string | Central 25–30%, containerised 10–15% |
| Market volume trend | −2% in 2025, −9% in 2026 | First contraction on record |
Shift to string inverters
Distributed MPPT, better shade tolerance and repair without shutting the whole plant — the reason for our own string selection.
1500 V, heading to 2000 V
1500 V DC is today's standard and the industry has begun moving toward 2000 V.
SiC semiconductors
Replacing IGBT with SiC lifts efficiency toward 99%; semiconductors are 20–25% of inverter cost.
Grid-forming inverters
Providing virtual inertia and frequency stability, increasingly mandated in leading markets.
Supply bottleneck
SiC modules and high-voltage DC-link capacitors carry 20–30 week lead times.
Convergence with storage
Hybrid units and PCS have simplified adding storage to an existing plant.
Batteries and storage
Storage costs have collapsed over two years, turning battery addition from an idea into an economic option.
| Level / region | Price | Source |
|---|---|---|
| LFP cell, ex-works China | About USD 40/kWh | Observed floor of 36 — BloombergNEF |
| Global average lithium pack 2025 | About USD 108/kWh | China at 84; down 13% year on year |
| Turnkey system, global average | USD 117/kWh | Down 31% from 2024 — BNEF |
| Turnkey 4-hour, China | USD 73–130/kWh | The cheapest market in the world |
| Outside China and the US, 2026 | USD 110–145/kWh | With Chinese equipment |
| LCOS — levelised storage cost | USD 65–88/MWh | Depends on cycle life and connection cost |
| Cell share of BESS cost | 50–60% | PCS about 10%, installation 10–15% |
A planning note: step-up transformers now carry lead times beyond 100 weeks globally — a more serious bottleneck than the batteries themselves. LFP dominates roughly 95% of utility tenders thanks to 6,000+ cycle life and better thermal stability.
Supply chain and structural overcapacity
Cheap equipment is a product of manufacturing overcapacity rather than a sudden technology leap.
| Metric | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Global nameplate module capacity | 1,315–1,405 GW per year | Enerdata and IEA-PVPS |
| Actual module shipments | 643–726 GW | First decline on record: −6% |
| Factory utilisation | About 50% | Capacity is double demand |
| China's share — polysilicon | Over 80% | Up to 95% of capacity under construction — IEA |
| China's share — ingot and wafer | About 98% | IEA |
| China's share — cells and modules | 92% and 85% | IEA / Ember |
| Chinese module exports 2025 | 267.6 GW | Up 13% year on year |
| Polysilicon inventory | Over 570,000 tonnes | Roughly 300 GW of latent module supply |
| Top four manufacturers | About 58% of all shipments | Jinko, LONGi, Trina, JA |
Utility-scale versus rooftop
Our project is utility-scale. This table shows why that segment delivers a larger share of generated energy.
| Metric | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Utility-scale share of capacity | 57–60% | IEA and IEA-PVPS |
| Distributed and rooftop share | 40–43% | About 900 GW across 31 countries |
| 2024 annual installation | About 380 versus 220 GW | Utility up 43%, rooftop up 23% |
| Share of generated energy | 62–67% utility-scale | Estimated; statistics bodies do not separate it |
| Capacity factor | Rooftop 10–20% lower | Sub-optimal tilt, shading, weaker ventilation |
| Employment | Two thirds of jobs in rooftop | From only 43% of capacity |
Technology selection for the Bushehr climate
This bears directly on our technical decision: in a hot, humid coastal climate the module selection criteria differ from a desert or temperate site.
| Technology | Module efficiency | Temperature coefficient | Market share 2025–26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| PERC (p-type) | 20–21% | About −0.34%/°C | Being phased out |
| TOPCon (n-type) | 22–23% | About −0.29%/°C | About 80% of new cell capacity |
| HJT heterojunction | 22.5–24% | About −0.24%/°C | Under 10% — best thermal behaviour |
| XBC back contact | 23–24% | About −0.29%/°C | 8–10% and growing |
| CdTe thin film | 19–20% | About −0.28%/°C | About 2% — First Solar |
| Perovskite-silicon tandem | 34.85% in the lab | — | Commercial from 2028–2030 |
Procurement requirements for a Gulf coastal site
Cell temperature here frequently exceeds 50-60 C, which makes the temperature coefficient decisive. Mandatory purchase specifications: IEC 61701 salt mist severity 6, IEC 62716 ammonia resistance, IP68 junction boxes, anodised frames of at least 25 micron, and PID resistance. Double-glass modules are preferred for moisture ingress protection.
The selection rule
For most 2026 projects TOPCon is the economic winner. HJT only justifies its premium where average cell temperature exceeds 45 C, a condition Bushehr meets and one worth testing at procurement. Comparison should always be at system LCOE, never at module dollars per watt. Bifacial modules on light-coloured ground almost always pay for themselves.
Power prices worldwide
For assessing a project, the relevant number is the PPA price and LCOE, not the retail tariff.
| Market | Price | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | USD 12.9/MWh | World record, 2025 |
| United Arab Emirates | USD 14/MWh | — |
| China | About USD 27/MWh | LCOE |
| India | USD 30–35/MWh | — |
| United States — utility scale | USD 25–45/MWh | LBNL |
| Spain and Portugal | EUR 42–46/MWh | Lowest in Europe |
| Global average LCOE — IRENA | USD 37–44/MWh | Utility scale |
| Middle East with single-axis tracking | USD 37/MWh | Lowest regional LCOE — Wood Mackenzie |
| Our 3 MW project | About USD 41/MWh | From the feasibility study |
A notable reversal in 2026: US solar PPA prices rose about 13% year on year in the first quarter, ending a decade of steady decline. The causes were aluminium and steel tariffs and explosive data-centre demand. The lesson for any developer is that cheap modules no longer guarantee a cheap project — US commercial BOS costs rose roughly 60% over the same period and absorbed the module savings.
Iran's green power market
The market our project sells into, where demand is structured differently from global markets.
Renewable capacity growth
National renewable capacity has risen from about 1,225 MW to roughly 5,500 MW in under two years, with a stated target of about 12,000 MW.
The power deficit
Peak demand in 1405 is forecast near 82,000 MW, and the peak-hour shortfall forces industrial curtailment each summer.
The green board
Energy is sold on the Iran Energy Exchange under weekly and monthly base-load contracts to industrial buyers.
Price trend
The average price rose from about IRR 43,447 in 1403 to IRR 94,384 in trades on 15 June 2026.
The Article 16 obligation
Industrial consumers above 1 MW must source 5% of their electricity from renewables within five years.
Subsidised retail tariffs
Retail electricity in Iran runs near USD 0.01/kWh, among the lowest in the world; the market-priced green board is therefore the only economic route for renewable energy.
What this data means for the 3 MW project
Where our project stands against global benchmarks.
Capital cost
USD 485 per kWp — competitive, and achieved by using the current equipment price window.
LCOE
About USD 41/MWh, within IRENA's global average band and above the Saudi records, which were achieved at hundreds of megawatts of scale.
Procurement window
Module prices have risen slightly off their historic floor and are expected to stabilise; delaying purchase is unlikely to yield an advantage.
Technology choice
Double-glass bifacial TOPCon with salt-mist severity 6 certification is the base case; HJT will be assessed if detailed study confirms cell temperatures.
Adding storage
At current BESS prices, adding batteries in later phases is worth assessing — but transformer lead times must be planned for.
The principal risk
Not equipment prices, but currency and procurement time — the two factors set out in the risk section of the investment page.
Technical glossary
| kWp | Rated module power under standard test conditions; the basis for a plant's DC capacity. |
|---|---|
| Specific yield | Kilowatt-hours generated per kWp installed per year. |
| Capacity factor | Annual output as a share of continuous operation at rated power. |
| GHI | Global horizontal irradiance: annual solar energy reaching a horizontal surface. |
| Performance ratio | The share of theoretical energy actually delivered after all losses. |
| LCOE | Levelised cost of energy across the project's life. |
| LCOS | The storage equivalent of LCOE: cost per kWh stored and returned. |
| Temperature coefficient | Power loss per degree of cell temperature above 25 C. |
| Bifacial | A module that also generates from light reflected off the ground. |
| BOS | Balance of system: everything but the modules. |
| PPA | A long-term power purchase agreement between generator and buyer. |
| BESS | Battery energy storage system. |
| DC/AC ratio | Module power divided by inverter power; typically optimal at 1.1–1.3. |
| EPC | Engineering, procurement and construction contractor. |
| Base load | A contract delivering constant power across every hour of the period. |
Sources: Ember Global Electricity Review 2026; IEA and IEA-PVPS; BloombergNEF; OPIS and pv magazine; pvXchange; Wood Mackenzie; IRENA; Lazard; InfoLink; REN21; ITRPV; GlobalPetrolPrices; Iran Energy Exchange trade reports; SATBA and Ministry of Energy statements; and the project feasibility study (August 2026). Market figures are current at the time of writing and should be re-quoted before any contract.
Our project in this market
Technical specification, financial model and sensitivity analysis for the 3 MW Bushehr plant.